Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.036597 0.041788 0.047495 0.054240 0.062002 0.070667 0.081088
2024-12-22 0.028121 0.034998 0.043266 0.053969 0.067503 0.084105 0.106107
2024-12-29 0.024368 0.032147 0.042087 0.055783 0.074263 0.098473 0.132824
2025-01-05 0.020464 0.028275 0.038753 0.053929 0.075507 0.105323 0.150056
2025-01-12 0.017819 0.025619 0.036529 0.053028 0.077581 0.113126 0.169132
2025-01-19 0.015391 0.022909 0.033814 0.050946 0.077486 0.117524 0.183424
2025-01-26 0.014440 0.022213 0.033886 0.052904 0.083519 0.131577 0.214091
2025-02-02 0.013614 0.021586 0.033951 0.054784 0.089547 0.146178 0.247342
2025-02-09 0.012885 0.021017 0.034012 0.056609 0.095608 0.161402 0.283433
2025-02-16 0.011824 0.019786 0.032859 0.056253 0.097889 0.170417 0.309661
2025-02-23 0.011018 0.018893 0.032163 0.056572 0.101316 0.181705 0.341285
2025-03-02 0.010128 0.017764 0.030945 0.055818 0.102686 0.189360 0.366898
2025-03-09 0.009617 0.017273 0.030826 0.057098 0.108067 0.205255 0.411080
2025-03-16 0.008883 0.016310 0.029771 0.056531 0.109880 0.214576 0.443384
2025-03-23 0.008558 0.016069 0.030012 0.058451 0.116751 0.234585 0.500579
2025-03-30 0.007781 0.014896 0.028380 0.056503 0.115572 0.238075 0.522558
2025-04-06 0.007203 0.014054 0.027305 0.055557 0.116337 0.245646 0.554514
2025-04-13 0.006546 0.012996 0.025710 0.053370 0.114214 0.246753 0.571737
2025-04-20 0.006388 0.012934 0.026107 0.055425 0.121542 0.269444 0.642972
2025-04-27 0.006229 0.012852 0.026454 0.057401 0.128901 0.293050 0.719775
2025-05-04 0.006072 0.012758 0.026763 0.059318 0.136332 0.317684 0.802696
2025-05-11 0.005725 0.012228 0.026092 0.058944 0.138334 0.329604 0.854446
2025-05-18 0.005463 0.011861 0.025743 0.059279 0.142070 0.346181 0.920953